I’ve been looking at 538’s modeling. If you scroll to the scatter plot democrats need something like 53% nationally to win the white house in every case.
Let’s keep this chart going and continue watching how Dems get repeatedly unfavorably treated by the electoral college. Much harder for a democrat to be elected president than a republican
[deleted] on
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mvw2 on
Interesting, shows how odd the Trump/Hilary race was. It also shows how popular Democrats have been in general with only Kerry being the outlier. More Importantly it shows the effect of gerrymandering and vote strength bias built into the election system, in average requiring a 2% popularity lead to offset the bias. However, the Trump/Clinton race shows this offset can exceed that quite significantly. For that race, Hillary would likely have needed nor than a 10% popular lead just to get to 50:50 on electoral. That election seems statistically improbable, but it’s mostly the stack up of small biases county to county, state to state, and the specific state win: lose mix that forced one of the most extreme total biases against Hilary that might be possible in a modem election. Against the average, she should have has a 4% electoral lead even with the 2% bias against her. She was a solid 15% down from where she should have been.
AdviceWithSalt on
The fact the popular vote has consistently been within 5% of the middle Since 2000 is *wild* to me.
uncre8ive on
I never realized how much better hillary did in a popular compared to gore, that’s honestly crazy to see how much 16 years changed
Spore211215 on
Let’s remember that gore actually got more of the electoral vote as well but Florida decided to just not count those votes instead so that way bush would win.
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Source: [Historical Presidential Election Map Timeline – 270toWin](https://www.270towin.com/historical-presidential-elections/timeline/)
Chart: Excel
Electoral College: DEI for red states.
Republican + Democrat definitely doesn’t equal 100%
I’ve been looking at 538’s modeling. If you scroll to the scatter plot democrats need something like 53% nationally to win the white house in every case.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/
Let’s keep this chart going and continue watching how Dems get repeatedly unfavorably treated by the electoral college. Much harder for a democrat to be elected president than a republican
[removed]
Interesting, shows how odd the Trump/Hilary race was. It also shows how popular Democrats have been in general with only Kerry being the outlier. More Importantly it shows the effect of gerrymandering and vote strength bias built into the election system, in average requiring a 2% popularity lead to offset the bias. However, the Trump/Clinton race shows this offset can exceed that quite significantly. For that race, Hillary would likely have needed nor than a 10% popular lead just to get to 50:50 on electoral. That election seems statistically improbable, but it’s mostly the stack up of small biases county to county, state to state, and the specific state win: lose mix that forced one of the most extreme total biases against Hilary that might be possible in a modem election. Against the average, she should have has a 4% electoral lead even with the 2% bias against her. She was a solid 15% down from where she should have been.
The fact the popular vote has consistently been within 5% of the middle Since 2000 is *wild* to me.
I never realized how much better hillary did in a popular compared to gore, that’s honestly crazy to see how much 16 years changed
Let’s remember that gore actually got more of the electoral vote as well but Florida decided to just not count those votes instead so that way bush would win.