I’m sure this is interesting data, but the GIF with fading transitions moving that quickly is rather useless.
DoeCommaJohn on
It should be noted that this is the RCP projection, and the 538 projection and Nate Silver’s independent projection have both stayed around 50/50
amatulic on
All I can say is: when I go to [this interactive map](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map/?promoref=Subnav) and fill it in with my own assessments of who would win each state (trying to be realistic and not biased), I don’t see a clear path for Harris. This isn’t surprising in a country where it’s theoretically possible to win the presidency with as little as 30% of the popular vote. Trump’s followers may be in the minority, but they tend to live in states with a disproportionately large electoral vote representation compared to their population.
Mr-Blah on
Showing time in animated form is lazy and unclear. That’s just a bad graph.
A simple two time state, before and after, would suffice to get the point across.
obj-g on
Awful graph, awful gif, awful post
Jpbbeck99 on
We can’t trust the polls cause Trump has a lot of people who will vote for him that are too afraid to admit it, just like when he went against Hillary
DysphoriaGML on
Beautiful my ass, it’s impossible to tell when it starts and when it finishes and look at the difference in distributions at the same time
Boberto1952 on
Rednecks don’t take polls, these numbers are usually skewed against Trump by several percentage points
suburban_paradise on
Interesting graphic and terrifying that there’s a ~30% chance Americans will decide to return that piece of garbage to power.
superstevo78 on
it is insane how close it is it is beyond comprehension that you would think Trump should be president. I wouldn’t trust him running a Burger King.
nuggutron on
this means Less-Than-Nothing
Freeman421 on
I remember CNN using polls and saying Clinton was going to win a landslide…
Cordistan on
I kinda get what this chart is saying but I’m not sure about two parts: the purple line and what is the median in this case – or why is the median needed?
TricksterWolf on
This is neat, but the data you’re using probably inflates Harris’s odds a little. During this period I think both 538 and Silver have had her around 60%. Should nothing change, regression will increase her chances as we get closer to Election Day, though.
Old_Captain_9131 on
I’m glad where we are. Imagine if we have accepted the nominees blindly, there wouldn’t be any backlash against Biden and we would have been looking at completely different graphs here.
We’ll defeat the real MAGA because we have defeated Blue MAGA before. We can do this.
Reasonable_Stay_3839 on
“Statewide polls” – Which state? This seems like important information to just leave out.
JustAnotherJoe99 on
I remember when polls showed a 99% victory for Hillary
DrunkenBandit1 on
This is gonna be the longest five weeks ever.
damienVOG on
text almost unreadable and impossible to put into context
srphotos on
That doesn’t really fit with RCP’s website, which, right at this moment, gives Trump 281 EVs. So… uh, how did you find your way to the reverse in Harris’ favour as a median? What was your methodology, and how does it differ from RCP’s to arrive at opposite “conclusions”?
Hyperion1144 on
Hillary was ahead at this point too.
The only poll that matters is on election day.
pancakeonions on
VOTE
Make a plan and VOTE
microphohn on
Let’s revisit this around Nov 12th or so?
prima_facie2021 on
This is one of the more beautiful depictions of data I have seen on this sub in 2 years of lurking. Fantastic job, OP!
Wizzle_Pizzle_420 on
This is one of the coolest graph setups I’ve seen on here in a while. Nice work!
26 Comments
Source: [RealClearPolls.com](http://RealClearPolls.com) – Tools: MATLAB
I’m sure this is interesting data, but the GIF with fading transitions moving that quickly is rather useless.
It should be noted that this is the RCP projection, and the 538 projection and Nate Silver’s independent projection have both stayed around 50/50
All I can say is: when I go to [this interactive map](https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map/?promoref=Subnav) and fill it in with my own assessments of who would win each state (trying to be realistic and not biased), I don’t see a clear path for Harris. This isn’t surprising in a country where it’s theoretically possible to win the presidency with as little as 30% of the popular vote. Trump’s followers may be in the minority, but they tend to live in states with a disproportionately large electoral vote representation compared to their population.
Showing time in animated form is lazy and unclear. That’s just a bad graph.
A simple two time state, before and after, would suffice to get the point across.
Awful graph, awful gif, awful post
We can’t trust the polls cause Trump has a lot of people who will vote for him that are too afraid to admit it, just like when he went against Hillary
Beautiful my ass, it’s impossible to tell when it starts and when it finishes and look at the difference in distributions at the same time
Rednecks don’t take polls, these numbers are usually skewed against Trump by several percentage points
Interesting graphic and terrifying that there’s a ~30% chance Americans will decide to return that piece of garbage to power.
it is insane how close it is it is beyond comprehension that you would think Trump should be president. I wouldn’t trust him running a Burger King.
this means Less-Than-Nothing
I remember CNN using polls and saying Clinton was going to win a landslide…
I kinda get what this chart is saying but I’m not sure about two parts: the purple line and what is the median in this case – or why is the median needed?
This is neat, but the data you’re using probably inflates Harris’s odds a little. During this period I think both 538 and Silver have had her around 60%. Should nothing change, regression will increase her chances as we get closer to Election Day, though.
I’m glad where we are. Imagine if we have accepted the nominees blindly, there wouldn’t be any backlash against Biden and we would have been looking at completely different graphs here.
We’ll defeat the real MAGA because we have defeated Blue MAGA before. We can do this.
“Statewide polls” – Which state? This seems like important information to just leave out.
I remember when polls showed a 99% victory for Hillary
This is gonna be the longest five weeks ever.
text almost unreadable and impossible to put into context
That doesn’t really fit with RCP’s website, which, right at this moment, gives Trump 281 EVs. So… uh, how did you find your way to the reverse in Harris’ favour as a median? What was your methodology, and how does it differ from RCP’s to arrive at opposite “conclusions”?
Hillary was ahead at this point too.
The only poll that matters is on election day.
VOTE
Make a plan and VOTE
Let’s revisit this around Nov 12th or so?
This is one of the more beautiful depictions of data I have seen on this sub in 2 years of lurking. Fantastic job, OP!
This is one of the coolest graph setups I’ve seen on here in a while. Nice work!