So the polls that can be altered with money show the billionaire party winning, very reliable source.
LivePin4632 on
Most of the election betting markets are overseas that don’t even allow US citizens to legally participate. So they can be manipulated by foreign govts and rich folks who can’t even vote in the elections.
Disinformation is huge with these markets. You can say that everything is rigged (if the results are the opposite) if you can rig the market.
lehighwiz on
Does the 538 aggregator consider the electoral college or just the percentage of voters who intend to vote for their candidate. If it doesn’t consider the electoral college, then both can be right.
genx_redditor_73 on
Iowa Election Market – Presidential Election – Winner Take All view.
Edit: from the University of Iowa – market runs on a $1 maximum amount and is designed as an experiment in market data.
The only thing that’s certain is I’m fucking leaving this country if Trump is back.
overzealous_dentist on
You’re aggregating prediction markets, but hand-picking the only pollster that still thinks Harris has the larger chance of winning. Of course they’re going to decouple.
Original_Dogmeat on
Looks like 2020 deviated more than the poll even though they were in the same direction.
8 Comments
Sources from [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) and [electionbettingodds.com](http://electionbettingodds.com), made in Mathematica.
So the polls that can be altered with money show the billionaire party winning, very reliable source.
Most of the election betting markets are overseas that don’t even allow US citizens to legally participate. So they can be manipulated by foreign govts and rich folks who can’t even vote in the elections.
Disinformation is huge with these markets. You can say that everything is rigged (if the results are the opposite) if you can rig the market.
Does the 538 aggregator consider the electoral college or just the percentage of voters who intend to vote for their candidate. If it doesn’t consider the electoral college, then both can be right.
Iowa Election Market – Presidential Election – Winner Take All view.
Edit: from the University of Iowa – market runs on a $1 maximum amount and is designed as an experiment in market data.
https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/iem_market_info/2024-u-s-presidential-winner-takes-all-market/
The truth is nobody fucking knows.
The only thing that’s certain is I’m fucking leaving this country if Trump is back.
You’re aggregating prediction markets, but hand-picking the only pollster that still thinks Harris has the larger chance of winning. Of course they’re going to decouple.
Looks like 2020 deviated more than the poll even though they were in the same direction.