[OC] When will Shohei Ohtani become the first member of the 50-50 Club?

    by wolverinelord

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    1. I [previously posted](https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/1f4a1pc/oc_visualizing_shohei_ohtanis_chase_for_a_5050/) a simulation I did about estimating the probability that Shohei Ohtani would become the first player in history to hit 50 home runs and steal 50 bases in one season. It’s been a few weeks, and now he’s up to an 84% chance of doing it, according to my simulation. But when will he do it?

      I reworked my code a bit to spit out the game-by-game probability of him either hitting his 50th home run or stealing his 50th base (or both). It looks like the most likely date for him to do it is September 21, but that’s only by a hair.

      Data Source: [ESPN](https://www.espn.com/mlb/player/_/id/39832/shohei-ohtani)

      Tools Used: Pandas, NumPy, Matplotlib

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