Support for Senator Tommy Tuberville (R-AL) in 2020 Election vs White Population in Alabama Counties [OC]

**SOURCES**

* US Census Data
* [New York Times](https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/11/03/us/elections/results-alabama-senate.html)

**METHODOLOGY**

* Excel

**RESULTS**

|+|County|Tuberville|Jones|% White|
|:-|:-|:-|:-|:-|
|1|Autauga County|70.10%|29.90%|78.50%|
|2|Baldwin County|73.50%|26.50%|80.47%|
|3|Barbour County|52.00%|48.00%|43.95%|
|4|Bibb County|76.50%|23.50%|73.75%|
|5|Blount County|88.00%|12.00%|84.15%|
|6|Bullock County|24.10%|75.90%|22.02%|
|7|Butler County|55.50%|44.50%|50.81%|
|8|Calhoun County|66.90%|33.10%|68.29%|
|9|Chambers County|54.60%|45.40%|53.34%|
|10|Cherokee County|82.70%|17.30%|90.36%|
|11|Chilton County|81.80%|18.20%|77.48%|
|12|Choctaw County|56.50%|43.50%|55.58%|
|13|Clarke County|54.00%|46.00%|51.85%|
|14|Clay County|79.10%|20.90%|79.10%|
|15|Cleburne County|88.20%|11.80%|91.25%|
|16|Coffee County|74.00%|26.00%|66.88%|
|17|Colbert County|66.10%|33.90%|75.56%|
|18|Conecuh County|51.50%|48.50%|50.31%|
|19|Coosa County|65.20%|34.80%|65.53%|
|20|Covington County|81.50%|18.50%|81.60%|
|21|Crenshaw County|71.00%|29.00%|70.74%|
|22|Cullman County|86.30%|13.70%|89.11%|
|23|Dale County|69.60%|30.40%|66.09%|
|24|Dallas County|29.80%|70.20%|26.94%|
|25|DeKalb County|82.00%|18.00%|76.15%|
|26|Elmore County|72.10%|27.90%|71.09%|
|27|Escambia County|65.90%|34.10%|59.86%|
|28|Etowah County|72.30%|27.70%|75.15%|
|29|Fayette County|81.10%|18.90%|83.03%|
|30|Franklin County|79.10%|20.90%|73.43%|
|31|Geneva County|83.00%|17.00%|81.23%|
|32|Greene County|17.10%|82.90%|16.62%|
|33|Hale County|39.20%|60.80%|40.39%|
|34|Henry County|69.00%|31.00%|69.07%|
|35|Houston County|68.50%|31.50%|63.67%|
|36|Jackson County|80.50%|19.50%|85.82%|
|37|Jefferson County|41.30%|58.70%|48.06%|
|38|Lamar County|85.00%|15.00%|85.34%|
|39|Lauderdale County|68.40%|31.60%|81.75%|
|40|Lawrence County|73.60%|26.40%|74.73%|
|41|Lee County|57.80%|42.20%|63.01%|
|42|Limestone County|68.20%|31.80%|73.08%|
|43|Lowndes County|25.90%|74.10%|27.22%|
|44|Macon County|17.00%|83.00%|16.32%|
|45|Madison County|51.20%|48.80%|61.19%|
|46|Marengo County|47.60%|52.40%|43.34%|
|47|Marion County|86.60%|13.40%|88.93%|
|48|Marshall County|81.40%|18.60%|76.49%|
|49|Mobile County|52.80%|47.20%|54.65%|
|50|Monroe County|55.60%|44.40%|52.27%|
|51|Montgomery County|32.60%|67.40%|32.04%|
|52|Morgan County|71.70%|28.30%|71.49%|
|53|Perry County|24.40%|75.60%|27.55%|
|54|Pickens County|56.50%|43.50%|52.64%|
|55|Pike County|56.40%|43.60%|54.64%|
|56|Randolph County|78.10%|21.90%|75.70%|
|57|Russell County|44.20%|55.80%|42.08%|
|58|Shelby County|68.00%|32.00%|72.96%|
|59|St. Clair County|80.00%|20.00%|82.28%|
|60|Sumter County|24.80%|75.20%|23.79%|
|61|Talladega County|61.10%|38.90%|61.76%|
|62|Tallapoosa County|70.10%|29.90%|68.39%|
|63|Tuscaloosa County|55.00%|45.00%|59.41%|
|64|Walker County|80.70%|19.30%|86.31%|
|65|Washington County|70.00%|30.00%|66.72%|
|66|Wilcox County|30.30%|69.70%|27.04%|
|67|Winston County|88.40%|11.60%|91.75%|

**ANALYSIS**

White voters overwhelmingly supported Senator Tuberville. The coefficient of determination for white population in each county and its support for Tuberville was roughly 0.96, indicating that 96% of the variance in voting pattern could be predicted by the whiteness of the population.

**OUTLIERS**

Using a line of best fit, I calculated the following residuals, indicating that certain counties had higher or lower than predicted support for Tuberville given their demographics. Tuberville underperformed in the following counties:

|+|County|Residual|
|:-|:-|:-|
|1|Lauderdale County|-11.88%|
|2|Madison County|-9.83%|
|3|Colbert County|-8.38%|
|4|Jefferson County|-7.44%|
|5|Autauga County|-7.14%|
|6|Cherokee County|-5.64%|
|7|Baldwin County|-5.58%|
|8|Perry County|-5.15%|
|9|Lee County|-4.94%|
|10|Tuscaloosa County|-4.37%|
|11|Shelby County|-4.05%|
|12|Limestone County|-3.96%|
|13|Walker County|-3.85%|
|14|Jackson County|-3.59%|
|15|Lowndes County|-3.34%|

And overperformed in these:

|+|County|Residual|
|:-|:-|:-|
|1|Coffee County|7.64%|
|2|Barbour County|7.10%|
|3|DeKalb County|6.96%|
|4|Franklin County|6.61%|
|5|Escambia County|6.11%|
|6|Marshall County|6.05%|
|7|Chilton County|5.52%|
|8|Blount County|5.48%|
|9|Houston County|5.14%|
|10|Butler County|4.18%|
|11|Dale County|3.98%|
|12|Washington County|3.79%|
|13|Bibb County|3.71%|
|14|Randolph County|3.48%|
|15|Pickens County|3.47%|

[EDIT: it would be great if an Alabamian with knowledge of these counties can offer insight as to why Tuberville fared better or worse in some counties given their demographics!]

What’s the coefficient of correlation for this?

There are counties in Alabama that 90% white? Why does that feel crazy?